COP26: A Cautious Path to Limiting Global Warming to 1.8°C
From October 31st through November 12th, the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference will be taking place in Glasgow, Scotland. In the first five days alone, significant agreements and pledges have been made -- the following article will explore several of these advancements, while also taking into account the significant criticism and road blocks such commitments have encountered, both in the past and the present.
The End of Coal
At COP26, 77 countries have now pledged to end their use of coal, with all of the G-7 agreeing to end international coal financing efforts by the end of the year. This commitment unfortunately does not guarantee the same promises at a national level -- according to the pledge, major economies such as the United States and Germany will phase out the use of coal during the 2030s, while the rest of the participating countries and the world is expected to end its use during the 2040s. For 23 of the 77 countries, this is their first commitment to ending coal use; on the one hand, a promising advancement on global consensus around the dangers of coal, and on the other, a reminder that for the other 54 signatories, such statements have already been made, and to date, not acted upon. Phasing out coal takes time, of course, yet statements like these have been made by the same players for years now, with less progress made than anticipated.
Limiting Deforestation
More than 100 countries became signatories on an agreement “to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030” (CNBC) this past Tuesday. This agreement has the potential to be particularly impactful, with world leaders such as the United States’ Joe Biden, China’s Xi Jinping, and notably, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, all taking part. Forests will play a vital role in reversing climate change, given the carbon sequestering power of trees, and with 60% of the Amazon rainforest located in Brazil, which sequesters over 2 billion tons of CO2 each year, such commitments can’t come soon enough. Yet history still begs the question: how sincere can these commitments be? Bolsonaro in particular has come under considerable criticism in recent years for his actions surrounding the rainforest, from allowing deforestation to occur, to then lying about the forest’s condition, claiming it to be “pristine”, while wildfires ravaged the area. Just this past Thursday, Indonesia, a signatory on the agreement, claimed that it had not in fact agreed to ending deforestation by 2030, stipulating that such a commitment is inappropriate and unfair. Whether this agreement is a true pledge to the end of deforestation will remain to be seen.
The Road to 1.8 Degrees
Perhaps most important of all, after taking into consideration all of the pledges and agreements made thus far, the International Environmental Agency optimistically stated that full implementation would limit the Earth’s warming to 1.8 degrees celsius, in line with the Paris Agreement’s goal of sub 2.0 degrees celsius warming, but still above the more ambitious target of 1.5 degrees celsius warming. Following immediately on the heels of this announcement, however, was a stark warning from Selwin Hart, UN special adviser: “I heard your numbers, but based on the NDCs that have been submitted, the world is on a 2.7 degree pathway, a catastrophic pathway, and therefore we are a long way away from keeping the 1.5 degree goal of the Paris agreement alive” (The Guardian). Hart cautions that it is much too soon to celebrate; that the job must first be done.
With COP26 still actively in progress and flurries of new updates released every hour, the overall outcome is yet to be determined. On a broader scale, however, even in the weeks, months, and years following the conference, it’s impact will likely remain unclear -- climate change has been a point of focus for decades, with blanket statements and commitments often made without subsequent action. With so much global attention focused on the issue now, as well as the increasingly vital involvement of industry, we remain cautiously optimistic that Earth’s leaders may in fact be ready to walk the walk, not just talk the talk. As everyday businesses, consumers, and citizens, it can often feel that we are powerless when it comes to the decisions of major corporations and governments. Yet the progress we see today isn’t due to a sudden change of heart within the world’s most powerful organizations; it is because our united voice as Earth’s citizens can no longer be ignored. RyeStrategy was founded to help underserved organizations impactfully contribute their voices to this paramount movement. Start your journey here.
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